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href='/zixun/'>咨詢(xún)工程師</a> > <a href='/zixun/fxzl/'>復(fù)習(xí)指導(dǎo)</a> > <a href='/zixun/jingyan/'>經(jīng)驗(yàn)分享</a></div>  <div id="a0lmosil" class="layout clearfix">  <div id="a0lmosil" class="main-left clearfix">  <a href="http://www.accreditedmedicalassistantprograms.com/zixun/fxzl/xi20260305150000.shtml" target="_blank" title="咨詢(xún)?nèi)f人?？?><img src="/upload/resources/image/2026/03/09/608534.png" alt="咨詢(xún)?nèi)f人模考" class="banner"></a>   <div id="a0lmosil" class="news_mian"> <h1><span id="ycTitle"></span>2015年咨詢(xún)工程師：德?tīng)柗品?/h1>  <div id="a0lmosil" class="l-news-app-down"><a href="http://www.accreditedmedicalassistantprograms.com/zhuanti/2017newApp/" target="_blank">下載正保職業(yè)教育APP 訂閱最新報(bào)考消息</a></div>  <div id="a0lmosil" class="mark"> <div id="a0lmosil" class="lTxt"> <span id="a0lmosil" class="time">2015-04-07 13:39</span> <span id="a0lmosil" class="source">來(lái)源：<a href="http://www.accreditedmedicalassistantprograms.com" title="建設(shè)工程教育網(wǎng)">來(lái)自網(wǎng)絡(luò)</a></span> </div> <a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" class="collection li-an"></a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" class="print" onclick="javascript:window.print()">打印</a> <div id="a0lmosil" class="font_size">字體：<a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" class="big">大</a><a href="javascript:void(0);" target="_self" class="small">小</a></div> </div> </div>   <div id="a0lmosil" class="news_con"> <div id="a0lmosil" class="jxbox clearfix"> <p>　　<strong>德?tīng)柗品?/strong></p> <p>　　德?tīng)柗品ǎ―elphi）是在專(zhuān)家個(gè)人判斷法和專(zhuān)家會(huì)議法的基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展起來(lái)的一種專(zhuān)家調(diào)查法，它廣泛應(yīng)用在市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)、技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)、方案比選；社會(huì)評(píng)價(jià)等眾多領(lǐng)域。德?tīng)柗品ㄓ绕溥m用長(zhǎng)期需求預(yù)測(cè)，特別是當(dāng)預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)間跨度長(zhǎng)達(dá)10—30年，其他定量預(yù)測(cè)方法無(wú)法做出較為準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)時(shí)，以及預(yù)測(cè)缺乏歷史數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用其他方法存在較大困難時(shí)，采用德?tīng)柗品軌蛉〉幂^好的效果。</p><div id="a0lmosil" class="editor"> 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